“thers have suggested that DeSantis peaked following the midterm elections, when Florida Republicans saw sweeping victories there while Trump-endorsed candidates largely performed poorly in other parts of the country. In The Hill, Florida GOP strategist FORD O’CONNELL sees inexperience as the issue. ‘There is no team that has been with him through thick and thin.’” ‘Politics is a team sport, especially at this level,’ Ayres said. In the WSJ this morning, GOP pollster WHIT AYRES tells Alex Leary and John McCormick that the problem is that the governor “lacks a team that has worked with him before in a close election.” More from the article: “Key strategists who helped with his first bid for governor in 2018 are no longer with him - one of them, SUSIE WILES, is now a top Trump campaign aide - while his 2022 re-election was a 19-point blowout. Various explanations for the DeSantis whimper are now being floated. “It’s an uphill battle, but clearly Donald Trump is the runaway frontrunner.” “Right now in national polling we are way behind,” Cortes said on Sunday night.
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THE NARRATIVE: The DeSantis-is-stalled news cycle is now in full effect, with DeSantis super PAC official STEVE CORTES even giving it his stamp of approval this week. KIM REYNOLDS - is off limits for now as she insists she won’t endorse in the primary. The one endorsement that might really matter - DeSantis’ friend, Iowa Gov. Trump is swamping DeSantis in GOP endorsements at every level of government. KEVIN STITT, has endorsed DeSantis, according to FiveThirtyEight’s endorsement tracker. Since the first 24 hours of his announcement in late May, only one prominent Republican, Oklahoma Gov. THE GOP ELECTEDS: Perhaps even more important than these metrics is the fact that GOP elected officials are not rallying around DeSantis. We won’t know how quickly things slowed down until official numbers are released in a week, but clearly there was a significant dropoff. Which means that after Day One, he raised an average of just over $300,000 a day for the next 36 days of the fundraising quarter. That’s a figure well behind Trump’s $35 million, but likely substantially ahead of every other Republican candidate.īut dig into that figure: The $20 million includes an impressive $8.2 million on his first day as a candidate. DeSantis raised $20 million in Q2 despite only being a candidate for six weeks of the reporting period. THE MONEY: On the fundraising front, there is more evidence of a campaign losing momentum. In New Hampshire, where the DeSantis super PAC has stopped running ads, it’s 27 points. The polling in Iowa, where Trump continues to attack DeSantis mercilessly, has been limited, but what we have shows Trump up 24 points. For DeSantis, that number is in the low 20s (polling, not pounds).Įven after his official announcement in May - a moment of maximum exposure that should result in a significant bounce in polling - DeSantis was unable to reach close to his January high. By then, the Trump assault had begun, and DeSantis became the polling equivalent of an aging yo-yo dieter who settles into a natural weight and is no longer able to achieve the same gains. Then another valley and a spike to 36.1% a month later. After a decline, he had another spike up to 39% in mid-February.
THE POLLS: In national polls, DeSantis’ trajectory has been on the kind of track that does not bode well: The more information voters have received about him, the worse he does.īack in January, before the attacks from Trump world started coming, DeSantis peaked at 40.5% in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
RON DeSANTIS’ campaign to topple DONALD TRUMP has stalled.ĭeSantis is starting to look like the overhyped predecessors of GOP primaries past who entered the race with high expectations and lots of money, only to fall on their faces: PHIL GRAMM in 1996, JON HUNTSMAN in 2012, SCOTT WALKER and JEB BUSH in 2016. Santiago/Getty ImagesįAILURE TO LAUNCH - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is starting to look like the overhyped predecessors of GOP primaries past.
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